In poker you can’t control the cards, but you can control your decisions. EV (expected value) is how you measure whether a decision is good: how much you win or lose on average every time you make it. It’s the concept Burn EV is named after, and understanding it changes the way you think about the game.
What is EV in poker?
Expected value is the average profit of a decision if you could repeat it an infinite number of times under the same conditions. A decision with positive EV (+EV) makes money in the long run; one with negative EV (−EV) loses money, even if it sometimes works out.
Think of a coin flip: if you get paid $2 on heads and pay $1 on tails, each flip is worth +$0.50 on average. You might lose five times in a row, but if you keep playing you’ll end up ahead. Poker works the same way, just with more variables.
The expected value formula
To calculate the EV of a decision, multiply each possible outcome by its probability and add them up:
Formula
EV = (probability of winning × amount won) − (probability of losing × amount lost)
In poker, the probability of winning a hand at showdown is called equity: the percentage of the time your hand will win against your opponent’s range if all the cards are dealt.
Example 1: should I call this bet?
On the river there’s 100 in the pot and your opponent bets 50. If you call, you risk 50 to win 150 (the pot plus their bet). You estimate you win 30% of the time.
- You win: 0.30 × 150 = 45
- You lose: 0.70 × 50 = 35
- EV of calling = 45 − 35 = +10
Calling is correct: on average you win 10 every time you make this decision, even though you lose 7 times out of 10. Folding has an EV of 0 (you neither win nor lose anything more), so calling is better.
Pot odds: the shortcut for quick decisions
At the table there’s no time for formulas. Pot odds give you the minimum equity you need for a call to be profitable:
Minimum equity to call
Amount to call ÷ (final pot if you call)
In the example: 50 ÷ (100 + 50 + 50) = 50 ÷ 200 = 25%. If you win more than 25% of the time, calling is +EV.
| Bet size | Minimum equity to call |
|---|---|
| ¼ pot | 16.7% |
| ½ pot | 25% |
| ¾ pot | 30% |
| Pot | 33.3% |
| 2× pot | 40% |
This table also explains why the big blind defends so many hands preflop: since it has already put money in, the price is very good. We cover it in how to defend the big blind.
Example 2: the EV of going all-in
When you bet instead of calling, a second way to win appears: your opponent folding (fold equity). A simplified tournament example:
- There’s 4bb in the pot and you shove 10bb.
- Your opponent folds 50% of the time: you win 4bb.
- The other 50% they call and your hand wins 40% of the time: you win 14bb (the pot plus their 10bb) or lose your 10bb.
EV when called = 0.40 × 14 − 0.60 × 10 = 5.6 − 6 = −0.4bb.
Total EV = 0.50 × 4 + 0.50 × (−0.4) = 2 − 0.2 = +1.8bb.
Even though getting called is −EV, the shove is clearly profitable thanks to the times your opponent folds. It’s the logic behind push/fold charts.
The ranges you study are the practical way to always make the highest-EV decision. Train them in Burn EV until they’re automatic.
EV vs results
The most common mental mistake in poker is judging a decision by its outcome. You called with the best hand, your opponent hit the river and you lost: it was a good decision. You called with the worse hand and got lucky: it was a bad decision.
- In the short run, variance rules: results swing a lot.
- In the long run, EV rules: your winnings converge on the sum of the EV of your decisions.
Common mistake
Changing a range because “I always lose with this hand”. A handful of hands tells you nothing; what matters is whether the decision is +EV.
EV in preflop decisions
Preflop ranges are, at heart, EV charts: each square shows the highest expected-value action for that hand in that spot. Hands in the middle of the range have clearly positive EV; the ones at the edges are close to zero, which is why they often show up as mixed.
This has a practical consequence: mistakes with clear hands are expensive, and mistakes at the edges cost little each time but repeat thousands of times. That’s why it’s worth taking the time to memorize your ranges properly: every small preflop EV leak gets multiplied by every hand you play.
Frequently asked questions
What does EV mean in poker?
Expected value: the average profit or loss of a decision if it were repeated many times.
What is a +EV play?
A decision that makes money in the long run, even if it goes wrong in a particular hand.
How do you calculate pot odds?
Divide the amount you have to call by the total pot there will be if you call. The result is the minimum equity you need for the call to be profitable.
What is the difference between EV and equity?
Equity is the percentage of the time your hand wins at showdown. EV combines that equity with what you win and lose, plus fold equity if you bet.
Read next: what ICM is, the reason tournament chips aren’t worth the same as cash.